Overview

In the 1980s, the climate change threat was identified. The IPCC,an international scientific evaluation process , confirmed the risk that continuing greenhouse gas accumulation could lead to an average earth surface temperature increase of 1 to 5 degrees Celsius during the 21rst century, which could result in severe climate disruptions and impacts.



THE CONVENTION

The United Nations decided to organize an international response and a negotiating process was launched in 1991, which resulted in 1992 in the agreement on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.


The Convention defines a framework for international action: It sets an objective, stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a safe level. It also establishes principles to govern international action, including the need for Parties to act on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Categories of Parties are defined and their respective commitments set.


The international response consists of a mix of mitigation measures, reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions, or absorbing these gases into biomass, and adaptation measures, reducing the negative impacts of climate change.


All countries are committed to combat climate change and to inform other countries of their activities through periodic national communications. Industrialized countries listed in Annex I are committed to take the lead in global efforts to modify longer-term trends in greenhouse gas emissions and to implement policies and measures with the aim of returning their emissions to their 1990 levels. OECD countries listed in Annex II are in addition committed to fund the incremental cost of actions by developing countries to limit their emissions as well as the cost of their national communications. They are also committed to transfer technology and to assist the most vulnerable developing countries in meeting the cost of adaptation . Finally, it is made clear that the extent to which developing countries will effectively implement their commitments will depend on the effective implementation by developed countries of their commitments related to financial resources and transfer of technology and that development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing countries (Art.4.7).



THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

At COP1, in 1995 in Berlin, industrialized countries called for a move beyond the initial framework and for the negotiation of new commitments. The “Berlin Mandate” was negotiated, launching a process to define new commitments for industrialised countries after 2000. The Mandate precluded any new commitments for developing countries.


COP3, held in Kyoto in December 1997, agreed on the text of the Kyoto Protocol.


The central provision is a commitment of industrialised countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to about 5 percent on average below their 1990 level over the 2008-2012 period. Each such country has an assigned amount of maximum emissions. It can raise this ceiling by acquiring emissions allowances, either excess assigned amounts from other developed countries or certified emission reductions from Clean Development Mechanism projects in developing countries. These commitments are legally binding and non-compliance involves “consequences”.


Detailed modalities for implementing the Kyoto Protocol were negotiated in the following years and are embodied in the hefty Marrakesh Accords adopted at COP7 in 2001 in Marrakesh. Most countries, but not the United States among Annex 1 Parties, have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which entered into force in February 2005.



DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HAVE NOT DELIVERED

So far, the track record of developed countries in implementing their commitments is very disappointing.


The aim of returning GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 was essentially not achieved. Most OECD countries missed the aim by large margins and only a handful achieved it. Greenhouse gas emissions of all Annex 1 Parties together were lower in 2000 than in 1990, but this was due to the economic collapse of economies in transition, where economic output and emissions were cut often by more than half. It would be preposterous to equate economic upheaval resulting from the transition to a market economy with policies and measures implemented with the aim of returning emissions to their 1990 level.


Regarding the Kyoto Protocol targets, emissions in EITs are still well below 1990 levels, although they have resumed their growth from a minimum reached around 2000. OECD countries emit in 2005 about 11 percent more than in 1990, and only a few of them have emissions in line with their Kyoto targets. Most seem unlikely to comply without significant purchases of "hot air" from EITs.


Contributions to the GEF have remained near their initial level during the start-up phase and did not keep pace with a growing demand as developing countries developed plans. As a result, the GEF has remained largely irrelevant to developing countries actions against climate change, and nothing indicates that it has achieved any significant progress towards the goals of its operational strategy.


The performance of the financial mechanism is equally disappointing. Contributions to the GEF have hardly increased since the start-up phase and have not kept pace with a growing demand as developing countries developed plans. As a result, the GEF has remained largely irrelevant to developing countries' actions against climate change and nothing indicates that it has made significant progress towards the goals of its operational strategy. The funds established under the Marrakesh accords are largely empty.


The Clean Development Mechanism was promising, but the American decision to stay out of the Kyoto Protocol has greatly reduced potential demand for CERs and thus for emissions-reducing sustainable development projects in developing countries.


Regarding the funding of adaptation, information on any assistance by Annex II Parties to particularly vulnerable developing countries is not even collected and compiled. The only potential source of funds is a tax levied on sustainable development CDM projects in developing countries.


Nothing significant has been done to promote, facilitate or finance the transfer of or access to technologies to enable developing countries to implement the Convention.


Against this backdrop, calls to strengthen commitments of developing countries are absurd and go against Art. 4.7 of the Convention, since developed countries failed to fulfill their part of the deal . Furthermore, the balance of responsibility for the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere has not substantially changed since the 1990s.